Miami has improved from a 7.5-point underdog at Virginia on February 21 to the Cavaliers being favored by 4.5 in the ACC Tournament semifinals on Friday night per the FanDuelSportsbook. Miami easily covered at Virginia in an 86-83 loss.
Miami is +152 on the money line and Virginia is -184. The over/under for Miami against Virginia is -144.5. Miami beat Louisville 78-73 in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinal as a 1.5-point underdog. Virginia beat North Carolina State 81-74 as a 6.5-point favorite in their ACC Tournament quarterfinal on Thursday.
Miami is 17-13-1 against the point spread in 2025-26 and Virginia is 15-15-2. The Hurricanes are 10-8-1 against ACC opponents versus the point spread in 2025-26 and the Cavaliers are 9-10-0. Miami is 2-2 and Virginia is 2-2-1 versus the point spread at neutral site games in 2025-26.
Miami has covered the point spread in four of its last five games. Virginia ended a three-game streak of not covering the point spread on Thursday. The Hurricanes are 7-3 in 2025-26 as an underdog. Virginia is 12-14-2 against the spread this season as a favorite.
Miami and Virginia 2025-26 Over/Under History
Miami has had 18 games go over in 2025-26, 12 under and one that was a push. Virginia has had 13 games go over and 19 during the 2025-26 season. The 144.5 over/under is the fifth-lowest in a Miami game in 2025-26. Virginia has had five games this season with an over/under below 144.5.
Miami has had 10 ACC Games go over, eight under and one that pushed in 2025-26. Seven Virginia ACC games have gone over and 12 under in 2025-26. Miami averages 82.7 points per game and allows 70.7 in 2025-26 and Virginia posts 80.9 PPG and allows 68.3. Miami and Virginia tip off at 7:00 PM EDT on Friday.