The Miami Hurricanes are expected to roll rival FSU next Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium and the spread confirms it. FanDuel has the Hurricanes as a 20.5-point favorite after opening at 21.5 points. The over/under is now set at 56.5 points.
It's a massive number that tells the story of where both teams are in today's college football landscape. Miami is ranked No. 3 in the latest AP Poll, expected to win the ACC and compete for the CFP championship. Florida State has become a below-average program under embattled coach Mike Norvell and risks missing a bowl game for the third straight season. There's a reason calls for him to get fired keep coming in.
NEW: Miami has opened up as a 21.5 point favorite over Florida State. The total is set at 54.5.
— TrintonBreeze (@TrintonBreeze) October 11, 2026
A spread this large is rare for the Miami-FSU rivalry, but it's happened more in recent years than you would expect. Two years ago, the line closed at Miami -21 and the Hurricanes won 36-14. The Seminoles were 21-point favorites in the series twice (2012 and 2013), winning both games, but the Hurricanes covered in 2012, losing 33-20.
Miami is expected to run FSU out of Hard Rock Stadium
There's no reason not to believe Miami can name their score against the Seminoles. FSU hasn't won a true road game since the last week of November in 2023 and the Seminoles just gave up around 400 yards rushing to Louisville. The rumors surrounding Norvell and his coaching staff are swirling, but there's a good likelihood he makes it through the season since the program gave him a ridiculous buyout.
Miami has won the last two games in the series and six out of the past nine games. Mario Cristobal is 2-2 against FSU as a head coach. It's a huge recruiting weekend in Coral Gables and the Hurricanes would love to put on a show for the next generation.
Rivalries can be funny. There is a different type of emotion involved with these games and that's something the Hurricanes are going to have to beware of. As we saw with the Red River Rivalry, very few people gave Oklahoma much of a chance given the Sooners' struggles on offense, but through good defense and special teams, they figured out a way to win.
Miami has a more professional mindset and Cristobal will have the Hurricanes locked in during practice this week. FSU isn't what it used to be, but the Seminoles have a few decent players, and they also have nothing to lose. There are no expectations for FSU to even keep this game close, so Miami is going to want to shut the door early and not give the Seminoles a chance to think about the upset.
The Hurricanes have been huge favorites in all their games this season, so this is nothing new for them. Miami players will come into the game with the confidence that as long as they do their job, there is nothing that FSU can do to stop them. That's not bragging, it's just the truth.
Odds change periodically and are subject to change
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