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Miami moves ahead of FSU in ESPN FPI ACC title projections

Florida State's loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday allowed Miami to pass the Seminoles in their chance to win an ACC Championship per the ESPN Football Power Index.

By Alan Rubenstein

Florida State Seminoles running back Trey Benson (3) fends off a defender as he runs down the field. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the Miami Hurricanes 27-20 on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023.
Florida State Seminoles running back Trey Benson (3) fends off a defender as he runs down the field. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the Miami Hurricanes 27-20 on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023. / Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK
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The 24-21 loss by Florida State to Georgia Tech on Saturday allowed Miami to pass the Seminoles in the ESPN Football Power Index projections to win the ACC. Clemson is now the favorite with a 23.2 percent chance to win the ACC per the FPI. Miami is third with a 10.6 percent chance to win the ACC per the FPI.

Louisville is second with a 14.0 percent chance to win the ACC per the FPI and Florida State fell from first to fourth with a 9.5 percent chance to win the ACC. Before Florida State lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, Miami had a 9,9 percent chance to win the ACC. Florida State plays Clemson and Miami in 2024, but not Louisville.

The ESPN Football Power Index gave Florida State a 26.2 percent chance to win the ACC in June. Clemson was second in the June ESPN Football Power Index projections with a 19.3 percent chance to win the ACC and Louisville was third at 12.0 percent. Georgia Tech moved up from the 12th best chance to win the ACC to eighth.

Clemson, Louisville and Miami benefited the most with the Florida State loss in the ESPN Football Power Index projections. Several teams received boosts in their projections to win the ACC with the Florida State loss while others remain longshots. Georgia Tech went from a 1.0 percent chance to win the ACC to 7.9 percent.

The loss to Florida State also impacted the projected outcome for the Hurricanes versus the Seminoles. Miami was originally projected with a 43.0 percent chance to beat Florida State. The Hurricanes are now projected with a 47.4 percent chance to beat the Seminoles in a virtual toss-up.

Miami tied in top 20 ESPN College Football Playoff projections. Miami tied in top 20 ESPN College Football Playoff projections. dark. Next

Georgia Tech exposed Florida State in several areas. The win by Georgia Tech opened up the race to earn a berth in the ACC Championship game in Charlotte on December 7. Miami's game at Georgia Tech is far more significant after their win over Florida State. Georgia Tech is now projected with a 52.0 percent chance to beat Miami.

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