Scott VanPelt called Miami's win over Notre Dame THE data point, not just a data point on his podcast with producer Stanford Steve Coughlin. Miami and Notre Dame have become the most polarizing comparison in the quest for an at-large berth in the College Football Playoffs.
The comparisons between Miami and Notre Dame have been made seemingly infinitely since the inaugural 2025 College Football Playoff rankings were released on November 4. Miami was 18th in the initial 2025 CFP rankings and is 12th entering the final weekend before the bracket is released.
Miami head coach Mario Cristobal has continually made appearances stating the case for Miami to earn a CFP berth. College football analysts nationally have stated their opinion if Miami or Notre Dame should earn a playoff berth.
In every single conference in collegiate sports head to head is the first tiebreaker. None of the other data points should matter with Miami and Notre Dame both 10-2. Miami controlled Notre Dame for the first three quarters before the Fighting Irish needed to rally to tie the game.
"I don't want to hear it's 'a data point'... it is THE data point."
— SVPod (@_SVPod) December 5, 2025
Miami won on the field. What matters in the end?#GoCanes | #GoIrish pic.twitter.com/NXoFpFjSP9
"Not if Notre Dame and Miami can play and you beat them. I don't want to hear it's a data point. It's not a data point. It is THE data point...We use comparative math and schedule strength when we have an absence of anything to compare...But they played and they lost. If it doesn't matter, then it doesn't matter...We actually played an aggressive out-of-conference team and we beat them and it didn't matter. "Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Notre Dame has a slight advantage in the data points, but the point is that it should not matter. Cristobal has been making the point all week that Miami beat Notre Dame on the field and that is how competitive sports should be decided.
Notre Dame has stated their case on the subjective opinion that it is playing better than Miami is now and that their losses have greater value than the Hurricanes' win over the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame also lost 27-17 to number seven Texas A&M
"When you're that even and you want to say the eye test, I think this team is better. I still hold there is a more deserving factor...they beat them. You can give me they're a better team. Miami, Notre Dame, better team right now, I don't know. But I know...I watched Miami beat them and lead for the whole game."Stanford Steve Coughlin, ESPN
The eye test has been the frequently stated argument for Notre Dame. That's a subjective view. In addition to its win over Notre Dame, Miami beat three of its four common opponents by a greater margin. Miami beat North Carolina State, Pittsburgh and Stanford by bigger margins than Notre Dame did,
Notre Dame beat Syracuse 70-7, while Miami defeated the Orange 38-10 in the other game involving common opponents. Notre Dame has a slight edge over Miami in the ESPN Football Power Index analytics.
Notre Dame is third in the ESPN FPI, is 13th in strength of record, 44th in strength of schedule, is fifth in game control and average in-game win probability. Miami is 14th in strength of record, has the 44th strength of schedule and sixth in average in-game win probability and game control.
And do what? Maybe take note acc - do what the mountain west did and have your highest rated teams in the championship game and not a 5 loss team.
— Scott Van Pelt (@notthefakeSVP) December 6, 2025
In the Sagarin ratings, Notre Dame is second and Miami is sixth. Miami is 1-0 against teams (Notre Dame) and 2-2 against teams in the Sagarin Top 10. Notre Dame is 0-2 against the Sagarin Top 10 (Miami and Texas A&M) and 2-2 against the top 20.
The numbers between Miami and Notre Dame are as close to even as possible. The debate would be different if either Miami or Notre Dame had a significant advantage. Miami controlled the game against Notre Dame for three quarters. Notre Dame needed a late rally to the the game, before Miami won on a late field goal.
The comments throughout the day on Saturday depended on who was providing the analysis. A head-to-head win should matter. Most of the analysis has leaned that way. Only the committee gets to make that decision and they will be criticized and lauded no matter what decision they make.