Miami fans woke up on Sunday still buzzing about a 41–7 rout of NC State and a quarterback who looked as sharp as he has all season. Carson Beck carved up the Wolfpack, completing 21 of 27 passes for 291 yards and three touchdowns, part of a five-touchdown day for an offense that piled up 581 yards and led 41–0 before the backups came in. Zoom out, though, and there is one number that throws a little cold water on the Week 12 celebration.
On the surface, Beck’s Miami resume has been impressive since he transferred from Georgia. Through 10 games, the senior has thrown for 2,485 yards with 18 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 73.2 percent completion rate, good enough to sit top 20 nationally in QBR. He spent September and early October on Heisman watch lists after getting wins over three ranked opponents and briefly rising to the top of the betting markets.
The issue is who those numbers are coming against. Beck’s season can be broken into two buckets using opponent pass defense rankings by EPA per pass (an advanced stat that measures how much each throw changes a team's expected points).
Against "bad" pass defenses — teams outside the top 50 in EPA/pass allowed — Beck has faced seven opponents. In those games, he is completing 75.1% of his throws at 9.2 yards per attempt with a 14-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 121.0 NFL passer rating.
Against the three "good" pass defenses on Miami's schedule so far, Notre Dame, Louisville and SMU, the line is much different: 68.9% completion percentage, 7.3 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, six interceptions and a 78.5 rating. The yardage barely changes but the efficiency and turnover story do.
NC State, as dominant as Miami looked, fits the first group. The Wolfpack came into the weekend ranked 125th in EPA/pass allowed and have now surrendered 36 or more points in four straight games.
The remaining schedule does not exactly stress-test this trend. Virginia Tech, Miami's next opponent, ranks 134th nationally in EPA per dropback, allowing 8.9 yards per attempt and struggling to limit explosive plays in the secondary. Pitt, which closes the regular season, sits a more respectable 56th in EPA/pass allowed, but still outside the upper tier that has given Beck the most trouble.
All of this lands in the middle of Miami's pursuit of the CFP. The Hurricanes are 8-2, 4-2 in the ACC and up to No. 14 in the AP Top 25, the highest ranking of any ACC team. In last week's College Football Playoff rankings, they slotted in at No. 15. Although due to ACC chaos, Miami looks to have a better shot at making the CFP as an at-large bid compared to making the conference title game.
If Miami gets where it wants to go — winning CFP games and competing for a national title — it will not be because Beck torched more bottom-100 pass defenses. It will be because he finally turns that gaudy "bad defense" stat line into something that holds up when the Hurricanes see the kind of elite secondaries waiting later in the year.